Politics

NDP Leader Carole James beats back critics, but can she replicate Gary Doer's Manitoba miracle?

by Charlie Smith on November 20th, 2010 at 2:43 PM
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      CBC has reported that NDP Leader Carole James has avoided being forced out at the party's provincial council meeting in Victoria.

      A motion to call a leadership convention next year was defeated 97-18. Another motion asking her to step down as leader was soundly defeated.

      Supporters of James wore yellow scarves with the letter "C".

      The level of support likely ensures that James will lead the NDP into the next provincial election, which is scheduled for May 2013.

      However, a newly crowned B.C. Liberal leader will probably call call an election much earlier than that, possibly as soon as spring 2011.

      James is trying to replicate former Manitoba NDP premier Gary Doer's approach. Doer lost three straight elections before finally winning and serving 10 years as premier.

      Doer, a political moderate, froze taxes and consistently introduced balanced budgets. In the process, he transformed the Manitoba NDP into a middle-of-the-road party, which seriously eroded support for provincial Liberals in that province.

      So is James a B.C. version of Doer? As appealing as Doer's record might appear to her supporters, there are some key differences between B.C. and Manitoba.

      First, Doer governed a smaller province with a much larger percentage of aboriginal voters. Doer could count on these votes to help the NDP in closely fought contests.

      Secondly, Doer's predecessor, Gary Filmon, did not undermine the public sector to nearly the same degree as B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell. In B.C., part of the NDP base wants to reverse those changes, whereas James seems more inclined to maintain the status quo. She won't even broach the possibility of increasing personal income taxes, for instance, to pay for more public services.

      It was okay for Doer to be a status quo politician in a province where the social-safety net hadn't been shredded and where there were no medical-services premiums. There's a far greater risk for B.C. politicians to promote the status quo after Campbell's cuts and the Great Recession of 2008-09.

      Thirdly, a significant proportion of B.C. voters care about environmental issues. In provincial elections, enough of them vote Green to thwart the NDP from winning.

      James has been unable to stop this from happening in two consecutive elections. So far, there's no compelling evidence that this will change in the next campaign.

      The Greens stood at 10 percent in the most recent Mustel Group poll. Even at five or six percent support, the Greens could siphon off enough votes to deny an NDP victory. Doer never had to deal with this issue in Manitoba.

      Fourthly, one of the greatest global trends has been the migration of people from rural to urban areas. This is also occurring in B.C. on a significant scale.

      Some of James's greatest successes have occurred in rural areas, notably on Vancouver Island, in coastal constituencies, and in the Kootenays. She has failed to do as well in Vancouver's inner and outer suburbs, where the population is increasing more rapidly.

      It's shocking that the NDP was unable to win a majority of the seats in Vancouver and Burnaby in the last election when its municipal brothers and sisters won these cities in a landslide in 2008.

      Finally, British Columbians have a history of embracing more extreme politicians than Manitobans. Campbell, Bill Bennett, and Bill Vander Zalm were more extreme than Filmon. B.C. New Democratic premiers Dave Barrett and Glen Clark were more extreme than Doer or his mentor, former Manitoba NDP premier Ed Schreyer.

      The only real moderate to get elected premier in B.C. in the past 40 years was Mike Harcourt, and that only occurred because of a vote split on the right side of the spectrum.

      Can James create a third way, just as Tony Blair did with the British Labour Party? Or will she experience a third defeat?

      Today, the B.C. NDP collectively decided to endorse James's belief that Doer's success can be replicated in this province.

      It won't sit well with some caucus members, but there's not a lot they can do about it, given that the next election might be just months away.

      Comments

      13 Comments

      Newly Doomed Party

      Nov 20, 2010 at 8:31pm

      The slogan the Steelworkers had for this weekend's Provincial Council meeting was

      Doer Dexter James - winning together
      Translation
      Doer Dexter Doomed - losing forever

      This weekend marks the time when the wheels began to fall of the two party bus in BC.

      The Newly Doomed Party will never govern in BC again.
      Guaranteed.

      Chris Budgell

      Nov 20, 2010 at 10:06pm

      I thought the fixed election date was legislated. If so, then they'd have to repeal that provision. What excuse would they give the voters for doing that?

      jaya

      Nov 21, 2010 at 12:21am

      @ Chris

      As you can see with Federal politics the law does not stand as an absolute against constitutional and common law surrounding parliamentary tradition.

      If the numbers in the House change because of the Recalls so that The liberals no longer have the majority, a no-confidence motion would most likely result in a new election. Otherwise, A new liberal leader might want to have an election in order to avoid the stench of a a government without a popular mandate. It's not a black and white issue.

      The law is not actually legally-binding, it's just a guideline.

      james green

      Nov 21, 2010 at 1:47am

      Let's be clear here. If a leader can't control her party members by being a great leader and by winning the hearts and minds of her own party she should resign.
      Carole, like Gordon cares more about her power than her party or the people. We do not need a lame duck leader at the helm oF this province in these trying times. CAROLE STEP DOWN. YOU HAVE LOST TWO ELECTIONS WHY GO FOR THREE?

      seth

      Nov 21, 2010 at 9:33am

      This is a joke right? Right?

      You are comparing Gary Doer, Canada's ambassador to the United States to this James twit, this stupid woman, who can't even win a debate with Bill Good.

      This very funny - thank you!!!

      So we have 13 MLA's agin her and 21 who are too asceeered of the Harridan and henchman Sohita to say anything. Her support - can you spell lukewarm.

      If fact the 21 MLA supporters really should be wearing that yellow ribbon as a yeller streak down the middle of their backs.

      If this horrid creature with the giant ego refuses to do the right thing and resign. the 13 should leave the yeller streakers behind and sit as independents.
      seth

      ernie57

      Nov 21, 2010 at 9:57am

      Well NDPers as long as James leads prepare to always loose

      John Simpson

      Nov 21, 2010 at 12:30pm

      Dear Carole James (or whoever at the BC NDP is in charge of reading comment boards of news stories to gauge popular opinion),

      The fact that every time a story is posted about BC politics there are several posts asking you to leave should say something to you. It does not matter what media it is, nearly every comment about you is negative.

      Facebook walls too are covered with "Why won't she leave" and "we'll never win with her in charge" posts. The fact you have the support most of your party is irrelevant. It's the public that votes on election day, not your party members.

      We all know you mean well, and that you're a great person. It's just you're not good at this, and you need to be the bigger person and step aside. I've been an NDP supporter all my life, and that is the the reason I want you to leave. You're not good for the party, or the province, as leader.

      Chris Budgell

      Nov 21, 2010 at 1:32pm

      @ jaya

      "The law is not actually legally-binding."

      I've been in court a number of times arguing the opposite: that the Law, by definition, is legally binding. The judges seem to agree with you.

      HellSlayerAndy

      Nov 21, 2010 at 2:40pm

      Can I quibble?
      The BIG BIG difference between Doer and James is that Doer was an effective Cabinet superstar in charge of Crowns during the Pawley government for 8 years?

      James??? She's accomplished absolutely nothing in public office prior to her leadership, other than being elected as a school trustee? Huge difference IMHO and should have been mentioned. I don't think anyone would have considered Doer an insider to the degree that James is?

      Secondly, the Greens aren't a fair comparison to the Liberals in Manitoba. Doesn't anyone remember Sharon Carstairs? The liberals were a credible alternative for a time whereas the Greens never were and the NDP in Manitoba, under Doer, fought for PC votes. The LIberals after Carstairs were never a factor.

      Thirdly, you mention that James has been successful in 'rural' areas on Van Island? Those are NOT the same rural areas as Manitoba. Those rural areas in BC are chalked full of resource industries and union members. Rural areas in Manitoba are agrarian and tend to have lots of farmers balanced out with resource industries; ergo why voting PC or NDP is not nearly considered as polarized.

      Fourthly, one can say that the NDP in Manitoba since the late 60s, are the 'natural' governing party given their majority status over time, whereas the NDP in BC have only accumulated approx. 10 years of power in over 50 years? Doer is viewed in a different context than James?

      Fifthly, Doer, while in Opposition, was effective and outspoken. James has been missing action for 7 years and seems to only endorse most of what Campbell as done. Even the 'carbon tax' difference was flipped a week after she lost, proving that the issue was simply manufactured to come up with SOME contrasts. (Both parties collaborated to ignore the police issues which would have been pure gold for the NDP if they came out swinging on civilian overseeing and accountability, not to mention, fleshing out a position regarding the continuation of the RCMP? The Liberals ran ex-cops and James is married to one and Dawn Black, for some reason jumped from the Feds, proudly boasts of her sons being cops? No wonder the issue was broached by either)

      Sixth, Filmon relentlessly attacked unions and it backfired, where as LPBC, bought them off with a few dollars in their pay cheques and thus reaped, not only success at the polls, but also demonstrated that the NDP in BC doesn't have any 'interests' outside of the rather narrow insider culture. A solid reminder of the NDP in 90s and people didn't bother to show up for the NDP -- their main lobby groups were getting on nicely with Campbell and his mega projects...which is how the Bennett dynasty played it.

      Seventh, isn't the obvious NDP comparison with James, not Doer, but Four Times Luck Jack Layton?
      The obvious part is that can anyone conceive of what either Carole or Jack might have to say at another all-Leaders debate?
      Eighth, in conspiratorial terms, isn't BC really a one-party state like Alberta and the NDP are just window-dressing with the job, like all Oppositional front 'pawl' parties, to keep a legitimate opposition from forming...especially these days with the wheels falling off the proverbial cart?

      Good article though -- I always liked Smith.

      bike lanes

      Nov 21, 2010 at 5:06pm

      All Carol James has to do to win the election is promise bike lanes. A promise of bike lanes will win the hearts of all voters. With new bike lanes built the tax revenue will even cover the overspending the NDP are famous for. just my 2 cents