B.C. Hydro watches glaciers melt away

Everybody needs water to survive. But British Columbians depend on the increasingly scarce resource in more ways than most. Ninety percent of the province’s electricity is produced by hydroelectric facilities, according to B.C. Hydro. Turn off the tap and the province would go dark.

Recently, Metro Vancouver geoscientist Dave Dunkley speculated that the Lower Mainland’s only remaining glacier will be gone within 100 years. Two centuries ago, there were 10. According to a December 9 article distributed to news outlets by Metro Vancouver, the disappearance of these glaciers has prompted the regional district to examine how climate change is affecting the region’s water supply.

Is the province’s primary means of producing electricity also at risk?

In a September 31 interview, Brian Menounos, team leader for the Western Canadian Cryospheric Network—which is conducting a comprehensive study of current and future conditions of glaciers in Western Canada—told the Straight, “Most projections right now say that the majority of B.C. glaciers will be gone in 150 years.”

B.C. Hydro’s Sean Fleming told the Straight that the public utility has begun to examine how glacial recession is going to affect hydroelectric production in B.C.

“We’ve definitely been thinking about it,” he said. “Some of our larger projects do in fact have a glacial melt component to their inflows.”

Fleming, a hydrologic modeler for B.C. Hydro’s inflow forecast team, noted that the effects of glacial recession on water resources vary from one region to the next. But he said that in southern B.C.—where most of B.C. Hydro’s glaciated watersheds are located—the trend is reduction.

“So that has implications for hydro-power generation,” he said.

But glacial recession is not the only factor associated with climate change that can affect B.C.’s watersheds, Fleming continued. There are also things like expected temperature changes and the possibility of increased precipitation.

“The question is how these things will all balance out to create a net impact on hydro-power availability.”

B.C. Hydro’s Web site states that the Columbia River Basin, Mica, and Revelstoke hydroelectric plants together contribute water that accounts for 25 percent of its electricity requirements. The Kootenay Canal and Seven Mile generating stations supply an additional 10 percent.

According to Fleming, the Columbia River Basin, Mica, and Kootenay Canal generating stations are all at least partially glacier fed.

“If you’re looking at specific projects, our number-one concern would be Mica dam,” Fleming said. “It’s a large watershed and drainage area that provides a good part of our energy. And is partially glacial fed.”

Mindy Brugman is a glaciologist at Environment Canada’s Pacific Storm Prediction Centre in Vancouver. She told the Straight that most glaciers in the province are receding, but maintained that the trend is not as uniform as one might expect.

“Recently, I have heard and seen that a number of the glaciers with very high accumulation areas have been advancing,” she said. “Some of the glaciers have healthier accumulation areas and would be retreating slower.”

Brugman emphasized a need for further study but also commended bodies like Metro Vancouver and B.C. Hydro for planning ahead.

“Recently, a number of them [glaciers] have turned around and advanced but that doesn’t mean that all of them will,” she said. “So I think it is very prudent that they are taking in the possibility that we could have a reduced water availability when we have a greater water need because of population growth.”

Fleming said that in conjunction with other groups such as the Western Canadian Cryospheric Network, B.C. Hydro is conducting scientific studies on how glacial recession is going to affect bodies of water used for hydroelectric production.

Then, he continued, there will be engineering studies on how hydroelectric generation will be affected by those projected changes. The next step is to figure out how the province should act to ensure that future energy needs are met.

“The studies are underway,” Fleming said.

You can follow Travis Lupick on Twitter at twitter.com/tlupick.