Gwynne Dyer: Why Obama cancelled plans for ballistic missile defence in Poland

“Some experts have doubts about the missile shield concept,” as the more cautious reporters put it. (That example comes from the BBC Web site.)

A franker journalist would say that the ballistic missile defence system that the Bush administration planned to put into Poland and the Czech Republicand that President Barack Obama has just cancelledhas never worked, and shows few signs of ever doing so.

Obama has done the right thing. It saves money that would have been wasted, and it repairs relations with Russia, which was paranoid about the system being so close to its borders. And the cancellation also signals a significant decline in the paranoia in Washington about Iran.

“Paranoia” is the right word in both cases. Iran doesn’t have any missiles that could even come within range of the  ballistice missile defence  system that was to go into Poland and the Czech Republic, let alone nuclear warheads to put on them.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Iran is not working on nuclear weapons, nor on missiles that could reach Europe, let alone the United States. Washington’s decision to deploy the system anyway was so irrational that it drove the Russians into paranoia as well.

Their intelligence services told them the same thing that the U.S. intelligence community told the Bush administration: that Iran had no nuclear weapons or long-range ballistic missiles, nor any possibility of getting them within less than five to 10 years. So what was the U.S. really up to, siting the system so close to Russia’s borders?

The intelligence people in Moscow also told Russian leaders that the U.S. system was useless junk that had never managed to intercept an incoming missile in an honest operational test. (All the tests were shamelessly rigged to make it easy for the intercepting missiles to strike their targets, and still they failed most of the time.)

Besides, although the planned  ballistic missile defence  base in Poland was close to Russia, it was in the wrong place to intercept Russian missiles.

So why did the Russians get paranoid about it? Because although they knew how the military-industrial complex worked in the United States (and they have similar problems with their own domestic version), they simply could not believe that the United States would spend so much money on something so stupid and pointless.

Surely there was something they were missing; some secret American strategy that would put them at a disadvantage.

No, there wasn’t, and almost everybody (except some Poles and Czechs who want U.S. troops on their soil as a guarantee against Russian misbehaviour, and some people on the American right) was pleased by Obama’s decision to pull the plug on the project.

As Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to NATO, said: "It's like having a decomposing corpse in your flat (apartment), and then the undertaker comes and takes it away."

But why did the Bush administration choose to deploy this nonfunctioning weapons system in Eastern Europe? Indeed, the same  ballistic missile defence  system has already been installed in California and Alaska to intercept North Korean missiles that cannot actually reach the United States either. It’s as if Ford or GM designed a car with faulty steering, and decided to put it on the market anyway.

The answer lies in another weapons project that began in 1946: the nuclear-powered airplane. It could stay airborne for months and fly around the world without refueling, its boosters promised, and that would give America a huge strategic advantage.

There was only one problem. The nuclear reactor needed a lot of shielding, because the aircrew would be only feet (metres) away. The shields had to be made of lead. And lead-filled airplanes cannot fly.

Fifteen years and about  $10 billion (in today’s money) later, there was still no viable design for a nuclear-powered bomber, let alone a flyable prototype.

Ballistic missiles were taking over the job of delivering nuclear weapons anyway. But when Robert McNamara became defence secretary in the Kennedy administration in 1961, he was astonished to discover that the nuclear-powered aircraft was still in the defence budget.

It was, he said, “as if I came down to breakfast in the morning and found a dead walrus on the dining-room table”.

It took McNamara two more years to kill the program, against fierce opposition from the air force and defence industry. The fact that the nuclear-powered aircraft did not and could not work was irrelevant.

Former general Dwight D. Eisenhower’s presidency is perhaps best remembered for his warning against what he named the “military-industrial complex” in his farewell speech in 1960, but he actually gave two warnings.

The other was that “public policy could become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.” These were the lobbies that kept the nuclear airplane going for  17 years, and they have kept the  ballistic missile defence  system going for more than a quarter-century already.

President Obama has killed the most pointlessly provocative of the ballistic missile defence  deployments, but he still cannot take the political risk of admitting that the system doesn’t work (though he twice explained in his speech that the United States needed missile defence systems that were “proven and cost-effective”.)

It is the grandchild of Star Wars, a sacred relic blessed by Saint Ronald Reagan himself, and it will keep appearing on various dining-room tables for years to come.

Gwynne Dyer’s latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in Canada by Random House.  

Comments

1 Comments

Alvin R. Larson

Sep 26, 2009 at 7:28pm

Your article may be good, but the quote below is a bunch of crap.

"There was only one problem. The nuclear reactor needed a lot of shielding, because the aircrew would be only feet (metres) away. The shields had to be made of lead. And lead-filled airplanes cannot fly.

Fifteen years and about $10 billion (in today’s money) later, there was still no viable design for a nuclear-powered bomber, let alone a flyable prototype. "

I worked (at Pratt and Whitney Aircraft) on shielding for the nuclear powered reactor in 1959-1961 and the SNAP-50 after that. Only an idiot would use lead shielding. We had sophisticated shield designs using shaped layers of very dense material for the gamma rays and light materials containing lots of hydrogen for the neutrons. We were had to use rather unsophisticated analytical methods at that time but used a lot of experiments to verify and assist in the design. Monte Carlo methods were just coming into use and would have made our job much easer. Our shield designs looked feasible. Pratt and Whitney did have what appeared to be a viable reactor/engine design and was ready to begin testing it at the Idaho nuclear test facility. Many component tests on pressure vessels, pumps, etc. had been run. GE also had designs but they didn't appear to me to be as good as Pratt and Whitney's. This was a very new technology and the research led to to new breakthroughs in metallurgy as well as in reactor physics.

I resent your implication that we scientists just sat around and collected fat salaries for years. There may have been good reasons for killing (or not starting) the program, such a the mess that could have been made if a nuclear powered plane crashed, but technical advances was not one of them.

I read your article on antiwar.com, which specializes in telling the truth. When you put falsehoods in your article it casts doubt on whether you are telling the truth or just sensationalizing. The overall point of your article may be valid but using gossip, or whatever, doesn't help you get your point across.

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