I've often thought that successful politicians plan their careers over a longer time horizon than many journalists realize.

Brian Mulroney spent years laying a foundation for his takeover of the Progressive Conservatives in 1983.

Jean Chrétien was probably thinking about replacing John Turner as leader of the federal Liberals before he found someone to help him write his memoirs. The book, Straight From the Heart, became a bestseller, ensuring he would become the next party leader.

Here in Vancouver, Gregor Robertson didn't suddenly decide to run for mayor in 2008. Plans were likely hatched not too long after he was elected as the NDP MLA for Vancouver-Fairview in 2005.

Who knows if Robertson and his close adviser, Mike Magee, have already decided their next chess move after the mayoral election?

Will Robertson emerge as a federal Liberal in 2015?

This can only happen if the Trudeau forces unearth a reason not to keep a candidate (Jody Wilson-Raybould? Jodie Emery? Hedy Fry?) on the ballot. But maybe that's already been figured out, too.

In a similar vein, we learned yesterday that Surrey mayor Dianne Watts is seeking the Conservative nomination in South Surrey–White Rock. But this is hardly a surprise to anyone who's been watching Surrey politics.

In January 2013, Watts cast the deciding vote against a proposed casino, theatre, and convention centre in South Surrey. It shocked many members of her party.

That's because prior to that, she had voted in favour of rezoning the site at 12 Avenue and 168 Street.

I suggested earlier this year that Watts's casino vote had "set herself up to become a popular Conservative candidate" in South Surrey if she decides to seek the nomination in one of the party's safest seats.

Now, she's made her move.

We all knew Watts had a right-wing bent when she invited former U.S. president George W. Bush to a regional economic summit in Surrey in 2011.

Her chief spin doctor at the time was Norman Stowe, who's been associated with right-wing politicians for a long time.

By inviting Bush, Watts didn't demonstrate a lot of empathy for the victims of Bush's ill-fated war in Iraq, notwithstanding the number of Iraqi refugees who've ended up in Surrey as an outcome of the U.S.-led invasion.

I suspect that Watts was already thinking about federal politics when she cast her casino vote. It ensured that gambling opponents in South Surrey, including many Christians, wouldn't object to her candidacy.

Of course, this will never be proven. No municipal politician will ever admit to casting a vote with an eye to running for a higher level of government.

Now, watch the next step. I expect that after Watts is nominated, the Conservatives will promise support for light rail in Surrey.

This script, too, will have been written long before the announcement is made by Prime Minister Stephen Harper with Dianne Watts standing at his side.