Here's why the Coalition of Progressive Electors faces an uphill struggle

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      Earlier today, I wrote about the problems facing Vision Vancouver in this election.

      I also outlined six reasons why the NPA could be slaughtered tomorrow.

      Now, it's the Coaltion of Progressive Electors' turn to face some scrutiny.

      Here are five reasons why I doubt COPE will elect anyone to council, though I haven't ruled out Anita Romaniuk's chance of snaring a park-board seat for the party.

      1. COPE ran too many candidates for council. With eight people competing, it means the left-wing party will not concentrate its vote around a small number of candidates. That can be fatal in a civic election. If COPE had run four or fewer candidates for council, it would have had a higher chance of getting one of them across the finish line among the top 10. COPE council candidates Lisa Barrett, Gayle Gavin, Tim Louis, Audrey Siegl, and Sid Chow Tan will achieve respectable results, with a couple of them possibly topping 30,000 votes. But given the heavy turnout in advance polls, it will probably take 45,000 to 50,000 votes to get elected this year. That leads me to believe the party is going to fall short by a significant margin.

      2. COPE's financially strapped. It couldn't get its message out in a cluttered media landscape, which means most voters don't know the names of any of its candidates apart from mayoral hopeful Meena Wong. The media pay attention to the "air war" in politics, but elections are often won or lost on the ground with paid foot soldiers identifying supporters and persuading them to get to polling booths. In this regard, COPE can't compete with the multimillion-dollar war chests of the NPA and Vision Vancouver.

      3. In this election, there are five former COPE candidates running for other parties: Allan Wong, RJ Aquino, Brent Granby, Jane Bouey, and Gwen Giesbrecht. There's also a new antidevelopment party that's making inroads. It's called the Greens under Adriane Carr. It reflects, in part, how COPE has become increasingly centred around its Left Front and Tim Louis. A former three-term COPE councillor, David Cadman, threw his support behind Vision Vancouver's Gregor Robertson. A two-term former COPE councillor, Ellen Woodsworth, remained neutral in this campaign. A popular three-term former COPE park commissioner, Loretta Woodcock, was invisible in the campaign.

      4. COPE is more like a social movement than a political party.

      5. COPE's capable executive director, Sean Antrim, announced his resignation as executive director shortly before the campaign began. Two of COPE's most knowledgeable people on park-board issues, Jamie Lee Hamilton and Raymond Tomlin, also bailed. The former leader of the B.C. Greens, Stuart Parker, also became fed up with some of COPE's internal disputes. You don't build a winning party by continually dividing.

      Comments

      11 Comments

      COPE has a platform?

      Nov 14, 2014 at 6:31pm

      After about a month of campaigning, COPE still hasn't provided any concrete and practical solutions to alleviating homelessness. An absent condo owner tax doesn't address how money is collected and can it be collected? If the money from the tax isn't available, does the homeless situation stay status quo or God forbid worse? There is also no convincing platform for job creation. The $15 per hour minimum wage is provincial jurisdiction, but to play Devil's advocate, let's say make it so, then employers may choose to lay off or reduce hours. Companies wanting to invest in Vancouver are put off by higher minimum wages, do not do so. So where is the job creation coming from?

      Arthur Vandelay

      Nov 14, 2014 at 8:57pm

      There's the five points above and also the matter of their election platform reading like a Robin Hood-esque children's fable.

      Hmm

      Nov 14, 2014 at 9:09pm

      Let's just stop and re-read that line in the context of a democracy. "They don't have nearly enough money". That is most likely why the countries with the best democracies have strict limits on election spending.

      Chris Shaw

      Nov 14, 2014 at 9:38pm

      Ah, Charlie: You know all of this because of why? It's been some time, apparently, since you had any sense of what the "left" is about in Vancouver. This last analysis of COPE is not improving your standing in this regard. Alas...

      COPE's future

      Nov 14, 2014 at 10:07pm

      It's a very serious tragedy that the left vote was ever divided in Vancouver. It has disenfranchised the underprivileged and economically challenged residents of Vancouver. Ironically running a COPE mayoral candidate will throw Vancouver into the hands of the extreme right. What COPE needs is strong level-headed long term leadership to rise again. 2018?

      1MoreReason

      Nov 14, 2014 at 11:59pm

      6. A lot of their campaign promises are outside of local government jurisdiction, and some would require the BC Liberals to modify the Vancouver Charter to allow left wing policies that the current provincial government adamantly opposes (i.e. a $15 minimum wage).

      Their transit pass proposal would need buy-in from all the TransLink member municipalities and the provincially appointed Board, and would also require billions of dollars in increased transit capacity to cope with increased demand (keeping in mind that the feds and the province haven't even pledged to fund the modest transit improvements proposed in the Mayors' council transit plan).

      Hazlit

      Nov 15, 2014 at 5:24am

      Hey COPE it's called identity politics. I'm a bloody socialist but I wouldn't vote for you guys in a million years.

      Drop the stupid identity politics platform (I need rights because I'm a victim--boo-hoo, boo-hoo, boo-hoo...) Your victimization is not only bad politics, it makes people run the other way--fast. I give my sympathy at work and I have no time for yours.

      Left wing politics means supporting arts and culture, providing public financing for education, giving a hard left hook punch to the Fraser Institute and oil interests, and working to persuade evil corporations to do their social duty.

      Bruce

      Nov 15, 2014 at 8:55am

      I think COPE's time is gone - ideally the leftist or progressive forces in this city will form around a new party. Also ideally, the same would happen to the NPA. It's a dinosaur that's only still walking because of the piles of money pushing it along. Politics in Vancouver need a serious revitalization.

      Stephen

      Nov 15, 2014 at 9:34am

      Yes, that's all true. But left-leaning voters should still vote COPE to make sure that the important issues it is raising in this election have a voice on the next Council. Politics, ultimately, is about which ideas, and whose interests, will prevail. So if I want to register support for a tax on vacant residential properties, if I want to see the City build "council houses" like hundreds of European cities do, and if I want to see a universal bus pass, then COPE is the logical choice. To vote Vision or NPA or Green would be to cast one's vote against those ideas.

      People mustn't allow themselves to be bamboozled into voting against their own best interests. Granted, the establishment parties have slick campaigns (financed by developers); they have candidates with name recognition; and each of them implicitly claims to be the lesser of two evils. But so what? Forget about "strategic voting" and treat the election like a plebiscite on competing platforms. That's the truly rational way to vote.

      Harsh Realist

      Nov 15, 2014 at 11:00am

      COPE are in trouble because their ideology requires that they view most residents of Vancouver as cash machines for their failed policies. Socialism is dead folks, neither Cuba nor Venezuela is a model to follow yet hang around COPEies for a few years and you will learn that societies that can't provide enough toilet paper or electricity are what we should be striving towards. The fringe of the party, the Cadman types willing to trade their ideological certitudes for a taste of power, defected to Vision and doomed the COPE to irrelevance except as spoilers.

      COPE have yet to learn the eternal rule of electoral politics: the "disenfranchised" don't vote. Repeat that a few times and get it through your heads. All the years of handing out protest signs and rewarding marchers with a sandwich and coffee haven't increased COPE support and the years of insisting taxpayers must pay more than we already are have soured many soft-lefties. The guilty middle-class vote now goes to Vision because they are so darn "green" along with the money vote and the cycling vote. Isn't it hilarious how Vision has used a range of left-wing groups to advance their agenda to enrich their 1% donors?