Gender wars lurk beneath the surface in B.C. election campaign

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      When Gordon Campbell headed the B.C. Liberals and Carole James was the B.C. NDP leader, there was a large gender gap in the electorate's voting intentions.

      Shortly before the 2009 election, one poll showed that the B.C. Liberals enjoyed a 16 percent lead among male voters, but were tied with the NDP among female voters.

      Many female voters couldn't stand Campbell. His government stopped funding women's centres, kept a lid on the minimum wage, and clawed back child-support payments dollar for dollar from social-assistance recipients.

      But it wasn't simply these issues that repelled them. Many female voters had a visceral dislike of Campbell and they trusted James.

      In 2013 with Christy Clark leading the B.C. Liberals, the governing party narrowed the gender gap. According to Ipsos Reid, only three percent more women voted NDP than voted for the B.C. Liberals in that election.

      The B.C. Liberals had a commanding 13 percent lead among male voters in 2013, ensuring another majority government.

      Clark knows that if she can continue chipping away at the B.C. NDP's traditional appeal to female voters, she can win the election even if more men switch their allegiance to the B.C. NDP.

      This explains why 40 percent of the B.C. Liberals' candidates are women. Many are running in lost-cause constituencies, including Vancouver-Hastings, Vancouver-Kingsway, and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

      Even though they don't have a chance in these constituencies, it offers the premier an opportunity to be photographed surrounded by female candidates, making it look like Clark has women's best interests in mind.

      The reality is that Clark has only one female candidate running in any of the four Vancouver consituencies where there's even a faint hope of electing a new B.C. Liberal MLA.

      If the stars align in the B.C. Liberals' favour, Kim Chan Logan could defeat Mable Elmore in Vancouver-Kensington, though it doesn't seem likely right now.

      Christy Clark isn't subtle in her appeals to female voters.
      B.C. government

      White men are running for the B.C. Liberals in two other seats they have a chance of winning: Vancouver-Fairview and Vancouver-Point Grey.

      The fourth seat, Vancouver-Langara, should be a shoo-in for the B.C. Liberals' new candidate, Michael Lee.

      Meanwhile, I've been noticing more conservative-minded anti-establishment men latching onto the anti-corruption message being advanced by Vancouver-Point Grey NDP MLA David Eby and Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP MLA Selina Robinson.

      This is the wildcard in the election. The B.C. Liberals will be in real trouble if Horgan, who looks a bit like a gruff biker (to quote Martyn Brown), can win over more male voters by having his surrogates drive home the stench of a government being for sale to the highest bidder.

      That's because it could force more of the B.C. Liberals' traditional supporters to abandon the party. Perhaps they'll cast a ballot for the Greens but they might even go for the NDP just to rid the province of Clark.

      NDP ads attacking Clark are even popping up on the TSN website, which skews heavily toward males.

      Horgan's two-track campaign also features his new NDP MLAs, Melanie Mark and Jodie Wickens, hammering the government's abysmal record on childcare and kids in government care. This resonates more strongly with female voters than male voters.

      Clark played that role for the B.C. Liberals during the 2001 election. Back then, she falsely claimed that her party would not appeal a court decision in favour of parents with autistic children. Irony of ironies: Wickens has a demonstrated track record as an advocate for parents of kids on the autism spectrum.

      The end result in 2001 was that the B.C. NDP was slaughtered. Many of its traditional supporters voted Green or even B.C. Liberal.

      I suspect that the B.C. Liberals' internal polling is showing that its support among male voters has softened considerably as Clark has morphed into the Establishment Premier.

      The proof will come if the B.C. Liberals start pushing Deputy Premier Rich Coleman into the spotlight. They might have preferred putting Community Services Minister Peter Fassbender in front of the cameras, but he recently damaged himself by mixing the release of government cheques with partisan politics.

      In the meantime, don't expect an issues-oriented campaign. We're not likely to see too many detailed policy proposals from either the NDP or the B.C. Liberals. That's because they and their surrogates are going to be too busy making the case that the other party can't be trusted with the reins of government.

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