Commentary

Gwynne Dyer: The return of Iran

by Gwynne Dyer on April 6th, 2015 at 9:46 AM
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      “This (Arab) nation, in its darkest hour, has never faced a challenge to its existence and a threat to its identity like the one it’s facing now,” said General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, now the ruler of Egypt.

      And you wanted to say: Not the Crusades? Not the Mongol invasion? Not even the European conquest of the entire Arab world between 1830 and 1920? You really think the gravest threat ever to Arab existence and identity is a bunch of tribal warriors in Yemen?

      Sisi was addressing the Arab League summit in Cairo last week that created a new pan-Arab military force to confront this threat, so overheated rhetoric was standard issue, but still.... The air forces of Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours are blasting Yemen from the air, and there is talk of Saudi Arabian, Egyptian, and even Pakistani troops invading on the ground, but it all smells more of panic than of strategic calculation.

      The panic is because the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East since approximately 1980 is at an end. Iran is back, and there is great dismay in the palaces of Riyadh—especially because it was Saudi Arabia’s great friend and ally, the United States, who finally set Iran free.

      It was the agreement in Lausanne last Thursday (April 2) between Iran and the group of 5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) that marked the end of the status quo. It was about ending the various trade embargoes against Iran in return for 10 to 15 years of strict controls on Iran’s nuclear power program, but it will also let Iran out of the jail it has been confined to since the 1979 revolution.

      Initially that revolution was quite scary for Iran’s Arab neighbours, because Iran’s example in overthrowing the local pro-Western ruler and taking a stronger stand against Israel was very popular in the Arab street. The solution was to paint Iran as a crazy terrorist state and isolate it as much as possible from the rest of the region.

      The other tactic that the conservative Arab states deployed was to stress the religious gulf between Iran (which is 90 percent Shia) and the Arab countries (whose people are at least 85 percent Sunni). The doctrinal differences are real, but they do not normally make ordinary people see one another as natural enemies unless somebody (like state propaganda) works hard at it.

      Those measures worked for 20 years, assisted by some really stupid Iranian actions like holding U.S. embassy personnel hostage for 444 days, but by the end of the 20th century they were losing credibility. What saved the “quarantine” policy in 2002 was the discovery that Tehran had been working on nuclear weapons design.

      The work was a revival of research that had been started during the U.S.-backed Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980-88 (when Saddam Hussein certainly was working on nuclear weapons), and was shut down afterwards. It was restarted in 1998, almost certainly in response to the nuclear weapons tests by Pakistan, Iran’s eastern neighbour. It was Iran being stupid again, but it was probably never about Israel.

      The alleged Iranian nuclear threat provided the basis for another decade and more of political quarantine and trade embargoes that have crippled Iran economically and isolated it politically. All that came to a sudden end last week with the agreement in principle in Lausanne (unless the Saudi Arabian and Israeli lobbies in Washington manage to torpedo the deal in the next few months).

      Iran has about the same population and GDP as Egypt, the biggest Arab country by far, but it is far closer both to the Arab Gulf states and to the Sunni-Shia battlegrounds in Iraq and Syria (both of whose governments are closely linked to Tehran). That’s what Sisi was really talking about when he spoke of an existential threat to Arab existence and identity. However, he’s still talking through his hat.

      Arab existence and identity are nowhere at risk, and Iran has no need to paint the Sunni Arab countries as enemies. The Iranian regime may be losing its support among the young (or maybe not), but it has absolutely no need to inoculate them against the attraction of Arab political systems and foreign policies by promoting an Arab-Iranian confrontation. They hold no attraction whatever for young Iranians.

      As for the notion that the Houthi militia that now controls most of Yemen is really an Iranian tool (which is the main justification for the military intervention there), it is nonsense. The Houthis, like the Iranians, are Shias, but they have their own local interests to protect, and Iran has no plausible reason to want some sort of strategic foothold in Yemen. It is a safe bet that there is not now even a single armed Iranian in Yemen.

      If the United States could send troops into Iraq in 2003 in the delusionary belief that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, then Saudi Arabia can believe that it is fighting Iranians in Yemen now. No country has a monopoly on stupidity, and Riyadh will probably have ample opportunity to regret its mistake.

      Comments

      13 Comments

      IChandler

      Apr 6, 2015 at 1:12pm

      Dyer: "If the US could [invade] Iraq in 2003 in the delusionary belief ...No country has a monopoly on stupidity, and Riyadh will probably have ample opportunity to regret its mistake."

      Stupidity can explain much - Patrick Cockburn writes that Saudi Arabia is not the first country where some try to earn patriotic credentials and stabilise its rule by waging a short and victorious foreign war:

      " A popular war would help unite Saudi liberals and Islamists behind a national banner while dissidents could be pilloried as traitors. Victory in Yemen would compensate for the frustration of Saudi policy in Iraq and Syria where the Saudis have been outmanoeuvred by Iran.

      A Young Saudi Prince needs to remain relevant among more experienced and aspiring siblings and disgruntled royal cousins. A successful military operation in Yemen would give him the credentials he needs..."

      http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41458.htm

      P.Peto

      Apr 6, 2015 at 4:50pm

      I Chandler DOES WELL TO QUOTE Patrick Cockburn on this issue as he is a recognized expert on middle eastern affairs! Dyer accuses muslems of stupidity but he hasn't the courage to call Anglo-American -Zionist policies in the middle east "stupid" which is exactly what they were and still are! Look at the American ambiquity of bombing ISIS in Syraq and allegedly supplying them with munitions and strengthening Al Qaeda in Yemen by supporting Saudi bombing. By the way, why havn't the Saudi's and their arab allies not been called to account for the illegal bombing of Yemen? This should have been done through the security council at the UN but no,the international rule of law no longer applies thanks to previous Anglo-American -Zionist precedents! We are living in a time of international anarchy, the law of the jungle, in which the mighty act with impunity and the UN is irrelevent. We live in dangerous times. People must hold their irresponsible governments to account and I am including Canadians!!

      Hab In China

      Apr 7, 2015 at 3:35am

      Another insightful and factually correct article from Dr. Dyer. Iran may not be a good country according to the West's definition, but their isolation by the world falls somewhere between inhumane and inconsistent.

      Iran is surrounded by nuclear weapons in India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and Israel. The U.S. has been an aggressive foe, sending in Saddam after their puppet was overthrown, and attacking many of Iran's neighbours. As for human rights, Iran has four large neighbours with even worse records - Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and yes, Saudi Arabia.

      Despite its many flaws, Iran has been one of the more stable and peaceful countries in the region. Its anti-Israel rhetoric is worrying, as is their support to armed groups for political gain. But Iran's actual effect has been statistically minimal. While they support the the leaders in Damascus and now Baghdad, most of the killing committed by Iranian troops is against ISIS, who we are also fighting.

      They are one of many players exporting death around the region. The Americans, Canadians, Europeans, Saudis, Israelis, Emiratis, Qataris, Jihadis, Aussies, Egyptians and Brits have all been involved to some degree.

      We have been siding with the Saudis and Israelis. The Saudis are the biggest promoters of jihadist violence around the world, and have plans to build 20 nuclear reactors. Israel has been assassinating Iranians and threatening to bomb, while running an apartheid regime armed with 200 nuclear weapons.

      While we should encourage Iran to improve the lives of its people, we are doing those same people a disservice by alienating the country and keeping its people in poverty.

      Credit Dyer for recognizing the geopolitics involved in the targeted demonization of Iran. Its not like he's shaking hands with the mullahs.

      doconnor

      Apr 7, 2015 at 4:21am

      "Dyer accuses muslems of stupidity but he hasn't the courage to call Anglo-American -Zionist policies in the middle east 'stupid'"

      Actually he calls America stupid right there in the last paragraph and has heavily criticized thier policies frequently in his carrier.

      DR--Montreal

      Apr 7, 2015 at 6:56am

      To P.Peto--exactly.
      And notice the negative hits your comments will surely earn, for speaking the truth to brain-washed Canadians, the same people who buy the "Russian aggression in Ukraine" narrative, also stuffed with lies and disinformation.

      This concerted attack on Yemen is a war crime in plain sight--why even hide it now that the entire Anglo-Zionist media will bay any line you need for the sheeple?
      I trust Yemen will be the Saudi Vietnam as the Houthis, a valiant people, give them some payback for bombing their hospitals, milk & yogurt factories, roads and bridges. What a brave coalition bombing tribesmen from the air.

      P.Peto

      Apr 7, 2015 at 9:49am

      @ doconnor
      Nice try but Dyer's last paragraph is ambiguous and open to differing interpretations. He doesn't plainly say the US behaved stupidly in Iraq but indirectly implies it with "No country has a monopoly on stupidity....". Moreover his claim "If the United States could send troops into Iraq in 2003 in the delusionary belief that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction..." is misleading in that the US KNEW Saddam didn't have WMD's just like they KNOW Iran doesn't have a atomic bomb program but they just used these accusations as cover for their covert reasons for waging war and sanctioning these countries. In both cases it was excessive cleverness rather than "stupidity" which in the end became manifest as stupidity due to their excessive hubris!

      doconnor

      Apr 7, 2015 at 12:04pm

      @P.Peto

      I think you are underestimating the stupidity in the United States. It is a dangerous mistake. It causes you to believe in all kinds of conspiracy theories.

      Huh??

      Apr 7, 2015 at 2:52pm

      Hey Doc, there is plenty of stupidity in Canada too.

      a.c.macauley

      Apr 7, 2015 at 4:51pm

      @P.Peto and IChandler

      Funny story (this was a while back), Conrad Black blacklisted (hehe :) ) Gwynne Dyer from publishing in any of his papers preciselybecause he HAS "the courage to call Anglo-American -Zionist policies in the middle east 'stupid'. Years later he continues to do so.