For fun, I decided to create a list of the NDP candidates who've won in the Burrard Peninsula in the last five elections. 

This is the section of land running from the University Endowment Lands to Port Coquitlam and which includes the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Port Moody, and Coquitlam.

Ever since the B.C. Liberal landslide of 2001, the NDP has been gaining ground on the Burrard Peninsula in each successive election. 

Here are the numbers:

2001 - 2 seats (Joy MacPhail, Jenny Kwan)

2005 - 9 seats (Shane Simpson, Gregor Robertson, Jenny Kwan, Adrian Dix, David Chudnovsky, Raj Chouhan, Chuck Puchmayr, Diane Thorne, Mike Farnworth)

2009 - 10 seats (Shane Simpson, Jenny Kwan, Adrian Dix, Mable Elmore, Spencer Chandra Herbert, Kathy Corrigan, Raj Chouhan, Dawn Black, Diane Thorne, Mike Farnworth)

2013 - 13 seats (Shane Simpson, Jenny Kwan, Adrian Dix, Mable Elmore, Spencer Chandra Herbert, David Eby, George Heyman, Kathy Corrigan, Raj Chouhan, Jane Shin, Judy Darcy, Selina Robinson, Mike Farnworth)

2017 - 16 seats (Shane Simpson, Melanie Mark, Adrian Dix, Mable Elmore, Spencer Chandra Herbert, David Eby, George Heyman, George Chow, Raj Chouhan, Katrina Chen, Anne Kang, Janet Routledge, Judy Darcy, Rick Glumac, Selina Robinson, and Mike Farnworth)

When the B.C. legislature was dissolved, the B.C. Liberals only held four seats in the Burrard Peninsula: Vancouver-Quilchena, Vancouver-Langara, Vancouver–False Creek, and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

The latter two were won by B.C. Liberals by just 415 and 87 votes, respectively.

There's a reasonable chance that after the October 24 election, the NDP will hold 18 of the 20 seats in the Burrard Peninsula.

That's up from just two seats in 2001 and nine seats in 2005.

B.C. Liberals in retreat

The NDP has also made gains south of the Fraser River, capturing Delta North and six of the nine seats in Surrey in 2017.

And the party made a breakthrough on the North Shore by snaring North Vancouver-Lonsdale for the first time since 1991.

In this election, the NDP could win Richmond-Queensborough and possibly even Richmond-Steveston, as well as North Vancouver–Seymour.

That would largely transform the B.C. Liberals—once the mightiest political organization in the Lower Mainland—to a party mostly confined to the B.C. Interior, West Vancouver, downtown Richmond, and Bible-thumping parts of Surrey, Langley, and the Fraser Valley.

If this scenario plays out later this month (after the mail-in ballots are counted), many in the party may come to regret choosing Andrew Wilkinson as leader in 2018 over former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts and Vancouver lawyer-turned-MLA Michael Lee.

Gordo got nuances of the region

Ever since Gordon Campbell resigned as B.C. Liberal leader, the NDP has grown more powerful in B.C.'s most populous region.

And the only way the B.C. Liberals can turn that around is with a candidate who has a good overview of the region and the types of issues that resonate with voters in constituencies that the party once held.

In Burnaby North and Vancouver-Fairview, for instance, environmental issues are important.

Postsecondary education is one of the key issues in Vancouver–Point Grey.

And in Vancouver-Fraserview, candidates who shed any sense of elitism, express the bread-and-butter concerns of a diverse electorate, and offer something to seniors are more likely to succeed.

In 2017, those four constitituences were all solidly in the NDP camp. They all went Liberal in Campbell's last run in 2009.

Campbell's understanding of the Lower Mainland was fortified by his time as chair of Metro Vancouver. He knew his way around the region.

If the polls are correct and the B.C. Liberals suffer a shellacking this month, the only way the party can recover some momentum will be to find a new leader who truly gets the ins and outs of local politics in Metro Vancouver.

It may not be Watts—she's been out of this game for a few years now.

But there are a few mayors and councillors in the region who might have the right stuff to bring the centre-right back from oblivion.

One of them might be lawyer and West Vancouver councillor Craig Cameron.

Of course, he's too environmental and likely too interested in urban planning for the current crop led by Wilkinson.

But perhaps if the B.C. Liberals were obliterated, they'll finally realize that most Metro Vancouver voters aren't interested in a 10-lane bridge across the Fraser River and expedited LNG projects.

They'll decide it's time to join the 21st century by recruiting someone who can appeal to moderate New Democrats and soft-Green voters.

In fact, Michael Lee might also be worth choosing as the next leader. He talks a good game on the environment. However, his federal Conservative experience might make some skeptical whether he would actually follow through.

A third option might be Brenda Locke, a Surrey city councillor who can appeal to everyday folks, eating into NDP Leader John Horgan's base. She's proven that she can take on Surrey mayor Doug McCallum, one of the meanest attack dogs in B.C. politics. Compared to McCallum, Horgan is a pussycat.

If the B.C. Liberals were truly interested in looking forward rather than backward, another possibility might be Greg Moore.

He's the moderate and very green former Port Coquitlam mayor who chaired Metro Vancouver for many years. He's also the king of recycling.

And if the B.C. Liberals want to reach out to Indigenous people, they could elect affable former Musqueam councillor Wade Grant as their next leader. He could also win over former B.C. Liberal voters who've switched to the NDP in recent years.

Then there's super-smart NPA councillor Lisa Dominato, who also has school-board experience. She would present a more progressive voice than what we're getting from the B.C. Liberal caucus

In addition, she would put the NDP on the defensive on education and health, which are two areas of perceived strength for Horgan's party. And that could help bring some of the so-called soccer moms in the suburbs back into the B.C. Liberal fold.

But B.C. Liberals being B.C. Liberals, they'll likely stick with what they like—i.e. a business-minded Fraser Institute type who's already in caucus and will be at the front of the line cheerleading fossil-fuel projects.

If they do that, they'll probably lose again, eventually going the way of the Socreds. That's because Greta's Army (i.e. voters under the age of 30) will eat that leader alive.