A Moneyball-style analysis of the Vancouver election: who gained and who lost?

    1 of 1 2 of 1

      One of the delights of municipal elections is that the some of the same candidates run year after year.

      This enables people like me to pore over numbers to see who's up and who's down on an election-by-election basis.

      Today, I created a list of the 31 candidates who ran in Vancouver in 2014 and in 2018. Then I determined by what percentage their vote increased or fell.

      Some were running for different positions in 2018 or they switched parties. These are indicated by asterisks and explained in the notes below.

      In these cases, I simply looked at their increase in votes, without factoring in what type of seat they were seeking.

      The biggest gain among those who were elected was posted by COPE's Gwen Giesbrecht. She'll be joining the park board.

      Here are the results

      1. Kelly Alm: +111.4 percent *

      2. Gwen Giesbrecht: +38.3 percent *

      3. Glen Chernen: +37.6 percent *

      4. Pete Fry: +33.1 percent

      5. Mike Hansen: +32.9 percent

      6. Stuart Mackinnon: +30.7 percent

      7. Janet Fraser: +27.1 percent

      8. Diana Day: +19.6 percent

      9. Jesse Johl: +8.4 percent

      10. Jamie Lee Hamilton: +5.9 percent

      11. Adriane Carr: -5.6 percent

      12. Kelly Alm: -14.8 percent *

      13. Melissa De Genova: -15.5 percent

      14. Michael Wiebe: -17.8 percent *

      15. Ken Denike: -19.5 percent *

      16. Christopher Richardson: -20.5 percent

      17. Sarah Kirby-Yung: -23.2 percent *

      18. Casey Crawford: -23.9 percent

      19. Fraser Ballantyne: -24.1 percent

      20. Sophia Woo: -24.9 percent *

      21. Allan Wong: -27.5 percent

      22. Sophia Cherryse Kaur Kaiser: -32.1 percent

      23. Mrs. Doubtfire: -34.7 percent

      24. Heather Deal: -36.8 percent

      25. Tim Ly: -37.8 percent

      26. Cord "Ted" Copeland: -39.1 percent

      27. Erin Shum: -58.9 percent *

      28. Ken Low: -60.1 percent *

      29. Catherine Evans: -61.1 percent *

      30. Maynard Aubichon: -72.2 percent

      31. Rob McDowell: -78.1 percent *

      32. Penny Noble: -81.21 percent *

      Notes

      1. The difference between Alm's council vote in 2014 and his school board vote in 2018.

      2. Giesbrecht switched from running for school board with Public Education Project to park board with COPE.

      3. Chernen switched from Cedar Party to Coalition Vancouver.

      12. Alm ran for council and school board this year. His vote total for council fell but he received far more votes for school trustee. Hence, the two rankings.

      14. Wiebe ran for park board in 2014 and council in 2018.

      15. Denike switched parties from the NPA to Coalition Vancouver.

      17: Kirby-Yung ran for park board in 2014 and council in 2018.

      20. Woo switched parties from the NPA to Coalition Vancouver.

      27. Shum switched from being an NPA park board candidate to being an independent council candidate.

      28: Low switched parties parties from the NPA to Vancouver 1st.

      29. Evans ran for park board in 2014 and council in 2018.

      31. McDowell switched from running for the NPA to being an independent.

      32. Noble ran as an NPA school board candidate in 2014 and as an independent council candidate in 2018.

      Comments