Based on a recent Ipsos poll, it's fair to assume that the NDP will be reelected in British Columbia with a strong majority.

Premier John Horgan's party had the support of 51 percent of decided voters.

That compared to only 33 percent for the B.C. Liberals and 12 percent for the B.C. Greens.

In our first-past-the-post electoral system, that adds up to a landslide.

In 2001 when the B.C. Liberals secured 57.62 percent of the vote, they won all but two seats in the legislature.

That year, the B.C. Greens ended up with zero seats after capturing 12.39 percent of the vote.

If the Ipsos numbers were to hold through to election day, the B.C. NDP could take up to 60 seats, with the Greens facing obliteration.

This leads into a discussion as to who will be in Horgan's next cabinet.

Given the exigencies of a balancing the choices by gender, region, and ethnicity, it's not going to be easy for the premier.

Some veterans—as well as high-profile former MPs running provincially—might be ticked off if they don't make the cut.

And that could fuel dissension down the road if this isn't carefully managed.

In its first term, the NDP caucus was remarkably disciplined. That's because unity was essential in a minority government to hold off the B.C. Liberals.

The only NDP MLA to jump ship was Leonard Krog, who chose to run for mayor of Nanaimo after he was left out of cabinet.

Back in 2017, Horgan and his chief of staff, Geoff Meggs, showed a distinct preference for choosing cabinet ministers with experience in the legislature. They were also partial to those with trade-union experience.

That was reflected in the only two rookie MLAs selected for cabinet. Lisa Beare is a former vice president of CUPE 4078, and Jinny Sims is a former MP and former B.C. Teachers' Federation president.

Given all of that, here are my bets for Horgan's next cabinet.

An asterisk beside their name indicates previous deep ties to organized labour.

Shoo-ins (if they want the headache of being in cabinet)

Harry Bains *

Lisa Beare *

Katrine Conroy

Nathan Cullen

Adrian Dix

David Eby

Mike Farnworth

Anne Kang

Melanie Mark

Lana Popham

Bruce Ralston

Selina Robinson

Good bets

Katrina Chen

George Chow

Fin Donnelly

Rob Fleming

George Heyman *

Sheila Malcolmson

Murray Rankin

Niki Sharma

Jennifer Whiteside *

Depending on the outcome and if any shoo-ins prefer the backbenches, don't rule out...

Brittny Anderson

Michele Babchuk

Brenda Bailey

Garry Begg

Jagrup Brar

Bob D'Eith

Mitzi Dean

Mable Elmore *

Rick Glumac

Spencer Chandra Herbert

Ravi Kahlon

Ronna-Rae Leonard

Grace Lore

Bowinn Ma

Josie Osborne

Janet Routledge *

Rachna Singh *

Wayne Stetski